Lessons
Here you will find links to everything you need for this course on ecological forecasting & dynamics. Material is broken into lessons and each lesson page contains links to whatever material is needed for that topic (videos, papers, discussion questions).
| Lesson | Description |
|---|---|
| Course Introduction | Introduction to the class |
| Paleoecological Dynamics | Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age |
| Working with times and dates in R | Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier |
| Changes in Phenology | Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time |
| Time Series Decomposition in R | Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data |
| Community Dynamics | Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting |
| Time Series Autocorrelation in R | Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it |
| Introduction to Time Series Data | Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting |
| Range shifts | Discussion of shifts in species ranges in response to climate change |
| Time series modeling in R 1 | Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data |
| Time series modeling in R 2 | Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data |
| Time series modeling in R 3 | Integrate exogenous variables into time-series models in R using ecological data |
| Introduction to Ecological Forecasting | A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting |
| Introduction to Forecasting in R | R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package |
| Uncertainty in Forecasting | Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting |
| Uncertainty in Forecasting - Dietze Chapter 2 | Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting |
| No Class | Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it |
| Evaluating Forecasts in R | R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package |
| Evaluating Forecasts in R 2 | R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package |
| Introduction to Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) | An introduction to generalized additive models and how then can be used with time-series |
| Fitting time-series GAMS in R | Learning Objectives: |
| Forecasting with GAMs in R | Using generalized additive models for making forecasts |
| Ask us anything 2 | Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it |
| Forecasting using species distribution models | How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts |
| Species Distribution Models in R | An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models |
| State Space Models in Ecology | Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological modeling and forecasting |
| Complex Time-Series Models in R 1 | Introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R |
| Complex Time-Series Models in R 2 | Second part of introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R |
| State Space Models in R 1 | Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R |
| Data-driven models for forecasting | A discussion of data-driven models, how they compare to process models, and how they can be used for forecasting, with a focu on Empirical Dynamic Modeling |
| Empirical Dynamic Modeling in R | R Tutorial on fitting and making forecasts using empirical dynamic modeling |
| State Space Models in R 2 | Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R |
| Scenario based forecasting | Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making. |
| Election forecasts | Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting |
| Ethics of Ecological Forecasting | Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future |
| Hurricane Forecasts | Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges |
| Wrap up: Can we (and what should we) forecast in ecology? | Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned. |
| Iterative Forecasting | Benefits and approaches to conducting automated iterative forecasts |
| Lesson Template | Template for creating new lessons |
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