Lessons

Here you will find links to everything you need for this course on ecological forecasting & dynamics. Material is broken into lessons and each lesson page contains links to whatever material is needed for that topic (videos, papers, discussion questions).

• Course Introduction

  Introduction to the class

• Paleoecological Dynamics

  Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age

• R: Time and date data

  Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier

• Phenology

  Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time

• R: Time series decomposition

  Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data

• Community Dynamics

  Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting

• R: Time series autocorrelation

  Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it

• Intro to Time Series Data

  Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting

• R: Time series modeling 1

  Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

• R: Time series modeling 2

  Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

• R: Time series modeling 3

  Integrate exogenous variables into time-series models in R using ecological data

• Range shifts

  Discussion of shifts in species ranges in response to climate change

• Intro to Ecological Forecasting

  A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting

• R: Forecasting

  R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package

• Uncertainty

  Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting

• No Class

  Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it

• R: Forecast evaluation

  R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

• R: Forecast evaluation 2

  R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

• Intro to GAMS

  An introduction to generalized additive models and how then can be used with time-series

• Fitting time-series GAMS in R

• Forecasting with GAMs in R

  Using generalized additive models for making forecasts

• Ask us anything 2

  Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it

• Species Distribution Models

  How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts

• R: Species Distribution Models

  An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models

• Hurricane Forecasts

  Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges

• Election forecasts

  Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting

• State Space Models in Ecology

  Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological modeling and forecasting

• R: Complex Time-Series Models 1

  Introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R

• R: Complex Time-Series Models 2

  Second part of introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R

• R: State Space Models 1

  Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R

• Data-driven models

  A discussion of data-driven models, how they compare to process models, and how they can be used for forecasting, with a focu on Empirical Dynamic Modeling

• R: Empirical Dynamic Modeling

  R Tutorial on fitting and making forecasts using empirical dynamic modeling

• R: State Space Models 2

  Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R

• Forecasting scenarios

  Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.

• Forecasting Ethics

  Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future

• Course wrap up

  Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.

• Iterative Forecasting

  Benefits and approaches to conducting automated iterative forecasts

• Lesson Template

  Template for creating new lessons