# Lessons

Here you will find links to everything you need for this course on ecological forecasting & dynamics. Material is broken into lessons and each lesson page contains links to whatever material is needed for that topic (videos, papers, discussion questions).

##### Course Introduction

Introduction to the class

##### Paleoecological Dynamics

Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age

##### R: Time and date data

Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier

##### Phenology

Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time

##### R: Time series decomposition

Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data

##### Community Dynamics

Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting

##### R: Time series autocorrelation

Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it

##### Intro to Time Series Data

Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting

##### R: Time series modeling 1

Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

##### R: Time series modeling 2

Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

##### R: Time series modeling 3

Integrate exogenous variables into time-series models in R using ecological data

##### Range shifts

Discussion of shifts in species ranges in response to climate change

##### Intro to Ecological Forecasting

A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting

##### R: Forecasting

R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package

##### Uncertainty

Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting

##### No Class

Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it

##### R: Forecast evaluation

R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

##### R: Forecast evaluation 2

R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

##### Intro to GAMS

An introduction to generalized additive models and how then can be used with time-series

##### Fitting time-series GAMS in R

##### Forecasting with GAMs in R

Using generalized additive models for making forecasts

##### Ask us anything 2

Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it

##### Species Distribution Models

How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts

##### R: Species Distribution Models

An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models

##### Hurricane Forecasts

Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges

##### Election forecasts

Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting

##### State Space Models in Ecology

Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological modeling and forecasting

##### R: Complex Time-Series Models 1

Introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R

##### R: Complex Time-Series Models 2

Second part of introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R

##### R: State Space Models 1

Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R

##### Data-driven models

A discussion of data-driven models, how they compare to process models, and how they can be used for forecasting, with a focu on Empirical Dynamic Modeling

##### R: Empirical Dynamic Modeling

R Tutorial on fitting and making forecasts using empirical dynamic modeling

##### R: State Space Models 2

Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R

##### Forecasting scenarios

Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.

##### Forecasting Ethics

Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future

##### Course wrap up

Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.

##### Iterative Forecasting

Benefits and approaches to conducting automated iterative forecasts

##### Lesson Template

Template for creating new lessons