Discussion Questions

What is the data that 538 uses for its election forecasts? What sources of uncertainty does this data have?

How does 538’s model attempt to compensate for this uncertainty?

What dot he simulations tell us?

How does this approach compare to that used for hurricane forecasting? What are the similarities and differences?

What is the main difference between 538’s approach and MRP?

What data does it use and what are the sources of uncertainty related to it?

Why does the author argue that this method pointing in the same direction as other methods should strengthen the overall strength of our predictions?