Discussion Questions

Why ecological forecasting?

• Why do we need ecological forecasting?
• What are some of the things we need to be able to make forecasts?

Forecastability?

• What influences our ability to forecast and how?

Forecasting, planning, and goals

• What kinds of time-scales of forecasts do we want/need in ecology?
• How might these different “forecasting horizons” influence our approaches to forecasting?

Determining what to forecast

• How should we think about what to forecast in ecology?

Terminology

• What is the distinction between forecasting, prediction, projection & prognosis?
• Are these terms consistently used the two readings? In your experience more broadly?

Uncertainty

• What is the distinction between point estimates and uncertainty?
• Do most ecological forecasts include uncertainty estimates?
• Why does estimating uncertainty matter?

Forecasting data and methods

• What are the general types of models that can be used for forecasting and how do they differ?
• What are the different ways in which model parameters are determined?
• When might these different approaches be most appropriate in ecology?
• What are the different ways in which time and can incorporated into models?

Basic steps

• How do the “basic steps” of forecasting relate to ecological forecasting?