Instructor Notes

Introductions

  • Instructors
  • Goals for the class
    • Forecasting is increasingly important
      • Difficult
      • Ecology hasn’t historically done this well
      • Need to study dynamics in order to understand this * Need to learn how to work with dynamic (time-series) data
  • Students
    • Introduce yourself
    • Tell us what do you hope to get out of the class

How the course will run

  • Mix of paper discussions, R tutorials, and working on a forecasting project
  • Discussion
    • Read paper in advance
    • Questions to think about provided to help guide thinking while reading
    • Submit “confusions”, anything that you were confused about when reading the paper before class
  • R tutorials
    • Introductions to methods for working with dynamic data and forecasting
    • Focus on time-series data, models, and forecasts
    • I do, we do, you do
    • We will demonstrate a concept, have you follow along on your computers, and then have you do something very similar in class
  • 2 credit course so other than reading and installing packages for R tutorials most work will be in class
  • Grades
    • Paper discussions (22%)
      • Submit “confusions” before class
        • Participating in paper discussions in class
        • If you miss class you can submit written answers to the discussion questions
    • R tutorials (44%)
      • Submit completed R Tutorials via Canvas
      • If you attend class you should be done (or almost done) with them by the end of the period
      • If you can’t make class follow along with R tutorial notes
        • Will include some sections for you to complete on your own

Introduction to the website

  • Intro to the website

Introduction to Canvas

  • Intro to Canvas

Questions about the course

  • Any questions about how the course is going to work?

Opening discussion

  • What kinds of forecasts are you familiar with?
  • What do these forecasts for us and our society?
  • Do we think we can forecast successfully in ecology?
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