Instructor Notes

Sources of uncertainty

• So far we’ve talked about uncertainty as a single thing: epilson ~ N(0, sigma)
• Different sources of uncertainty
  • process uncertainty
  • parameter uncertainty
  • initial condition uncertainty
  • driver uncertainty
• Have students complete Activity B
• Give the students 8-10 minutes to complete each objective
• After each objective come back together to address questions and discuss for 3-5 minutes
• Bring postits or have some other approach for students to indicate they are done