Schedule

Introduction to the class

Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age

Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier

Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time

Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data

Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting

Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it

Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

Integrate exogenous variables into time-series models in R using ecological data

A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting

R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package

Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting

R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

Introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R

Second part of introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R

Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.

Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future

Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.