Schedule

August 24th - Course Introduction
Introduction to the class
August 29th - Paleoecological Dynamics
Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age
August 31st - Working with times and dates in R
Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier
September 5th - Changes in Phenology
Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time
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September 7th - Time Series Decomposition in R
Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data
September 12th - Community Dynamics
Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting
September 14th - Time Series Autocorrelation in R
Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it
September 19th - Introduction to Time Series Data
Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting
September 21st - Time series modeling in R 1
Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data
September 26th - Time series modeling in R 2
Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data
September 28th - Time series modeling in R 3
Integrate exogenous variables into time-series models in R using ecological data
October 3rd - Introduction to Ecological Forecasting
A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting
October 5th - Introduction to Forecasting in R
R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package
October 10th - Uncertainty in Forecasting
Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting
October 12th - No Class
Ask us anything you’ve been wondering about forecasting and we’ll talk about it
October 17th - Evaluating Forecasts in R
R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package
October 19th - Evaluating Forecasts in R 2
R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package
October 24th - Forecasting using species distribution models
How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts
October 26th - Species Distribution Models in R
An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models
October 31st - Hurricane Forecasts
Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges
November 2nd - Election forecasts
Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting
November 7th - State Space Models in Ecology
Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological modeling and forecasting
November 14th - Complex Time-Series Models in R 1
Introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R
November 16th - Complex Time-Series Models in R 2
Second part of introductory tutorial on complex time-series models in R
November 28th - Scenario based forecasting
Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.
November 30th - Ethics of Ecological Forecasting
Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future
December 5th - Wrap up: Can we (and what should we) forecast in ecology?
Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.