Discussion Questions
Adding Sources of Uncertainty
- What are the different sources of uncertainty?
- What is the distinction between uncertainties & sources of variation?
- Can uncertainty in initial conditions be reduced with more data?
- What is the difference between the additive process error and observation
error?
- What information do covariance matrices provide?
Thinking probabilistically
- How do the boxes in the graphical model of logistic growth relate to the
sources of uncertainty?
Predictability
- How does disturbance make forecasting difficult?
- Which components of uncertainty (e.g., in eq. 2.1) have the potential to grow
through time?
- What implications does this have for our ability to forecast
- What aspects of external drivers make systems easy vs. difficult to forecast?
- Are there implications of the need for different experimental designs for
forecasting vs. hypothesis testing for how we should do science?
- What is the difference between parameter uncertainty and parameter variability?
- What kinds of uncertainty/variability do you think are most important in
ecological systems?