Instructor Notes
What is an ecological surprise and how would it effect forecasting?
- A change in an ecological system unanticipated by current knowledge/models
- Difficult to incorporate into forecasts since not present in models
- Can have large impacts on future states of ecological systems
- Forecasts - most likely outcome
- Scenarios - explore range of possible outcomes
What is scenario planning and how does it differ from predictions and forecasting?
- Thinking about range of possible futures
- Based on both existing knowledge
- But recognizing uncertainty and potential for surprises
- Constructing story lines for each possible future to guide decision making
Has anyone been involved in scenario planning?
Which are the benefits of scenario planning?
- Identify strategies for different possible futures
- Be prepared to respond to different possible futures and respond if unexpected scenarios occur
- Actively engage those using and impacted by the forecasts in planning and decision making processes in ways that create awareness of future changes
- Good for systematic planning in uncertain situations
- Allows consideration of different decisions leading to different outcomes
- Actively recognizes uncertainty/surprises
What are some challenges you can envision for scenario planning?
Are scenarios qualitative, quantitative, both?
- Can be qualitative, semi-quantitative, full quantitative
What are the reasons that environmental scenario planning needs ecology?
- Climate scenarios can fail to capture the complexity of ecological systems and their feedbacks on climate
How will incorporating scenarios benefit ecologists and managers?