Discussion Questions

  • What are the different types of forecast models (i.e. the different modelling approaches) used to forecast hurricanes?
  • Spend some time on the descriptions of dynamical models (aka numerical weather prediction) because we’re going to spend some time talking about this approach to forecasting in particular.
    • How does numerical weather prediction create its forecasts? What are the models based on?
    • Where does the uncertainty in the forecasts come from?
  • What is an ensemble model and why is it useful? What do you think is an important piece of information that you would want from an ensemble forecast?
  • Why have forecasts improved over the decades? What innovations were required for this to happen?
  • Why is there a difference in our ability to forecast storm track vs. intensity?
  • Compare and contrast ecological and hurricane forecasting: differences in data? Types of models? Sources of uncertainty?