Discussion Questions

  • What is the data that 538 uses for its election forecasts? What sources of uncertainty does this data have?

  • How does 538’s model attempt to compensate for this uncertainty?

  • What dot he simulations tell us?

  • How does this approach compare to that used for hurricane forecasting? What are the similarities and differences?

  • What is the main difference between 538’s approach and MRP?

  • What data does it use and what are the sources of uncertainty related to it?

  • Why does the author argue that this method pointing in the same direction as other methods should strengthen the overall strength of our predictions?