# Lessons

Course Schedule and Links to Lessons

Here you will find links to everything you need for this course on ecological dynamics and forecasting. Material is broken into lessons and each lesson page contains links to whatever material is needed for that topic (videos, papers, discussion questions).

##### Introduction to Time Series Data (9/3/2020)

Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting

##### Paleoecological Dynamics (9/8/2020)

Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age

##### Working with times and dates in R (9/10/2020)

Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier

##### Changes in Phenology (9/15/2020)

Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time

##### Time Series Decomposition in R (9/17/2020)

Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data

##### Community Dynamics (09/22/2020)

Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting

##### Time Series Autocorrelation in R (09/24/2020)

Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it

##### Time series modeling in R (10/1/2020)

Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

##### Introduction to Ecological Forecasting (10/06/2020)

A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting

##### Introduction to Forecasting in R (10/08/2020)

R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package

##### Uncertainty in Forecasting (10/13/202)

Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting

##### Evaluating Forecasts in R (10/15/2020)

R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

##### Forecasting using state space models (10/20/2020)

Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological forecasting

##### State space models in R (10/22 & 10/27 2020)

Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R

##### Forecasting using species distribution models (10/29/2020)

How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts

##### Species Distribution Models in R (11/05/2020)

An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models

##### Hurricane Forecasts (11/10/2020)

Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges

##### Election forecasts (11/17/2020)

Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting

##### Data-driven models for forecasting (11/19/2020)

A discussion of data-driven models, how they compare to process models, and how they can be used for forecasting, with a focu on Empirical Dynamic Modeling

##### Empirical Dynamic Modeling in R

R Tutorial on fitting and making forecasts using empirical dynamic modeling

##### Scenario based forecasting (12/01/2020)

Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.

##### Ethics of Ecological Forecasting (12/3/2020)

Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future

##### Wrap up: Can we (and what should we) forecast in ecology? (12/8/2020)

Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.