Lessons
Course Schedule and Links to Lessons
Here you will find links to everything you need for this course on ecological dynamics and forecasting. Material is broken into lessons and each lesson page contains links to whatever material is needed for that topic (videos, papers, discussion questions).
Introduction to Time Series Data (9/3/2020)
Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting
Paleoecological Dynamics (9/8/2020)
Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age
Working with times and dates in R (9/10/2020)
Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier
Changes in Phenology (9/15/2020)
Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time
Time Series Decomposition in R (9/17/2020)
Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data
Community Dynamics (09/22/2020)
Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting
Time Series Autocorrelation in R (09/24/2020)
Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it
Time series modeling in R (10/1/2020)
Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data
Introduction to Ecological Forecasting (10/06/2020)
A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting
Introduction to Forecasting in R (10/08/2020)
R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package
Uncertainty in Forecasting (10/13/202)
Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting
Evaluating Forecasts in R (10/15/2020)
R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package
Forecasting using state space models (10/20/2020)
Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological forecasting
State space models in R (10/22 & 10/27 2020)
Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R
Forecasting using species distribution models (10/29/2020)
How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts
Species Distribution Models in R (11/05/2020)
An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models
Hurricane Forecasts (11/10/2020)
Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges
Election forecasts (11/17/2020)
Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting
Data-driven models for forecasting (11/19/2020)
A discussion of data-driven models, how they compare to process models, and how they can be used for forecasting, with a focu on Empirical Dynamic Modeling
Empirical Dynamic Modeling in R
R Tutorial on fitting and making forecasts using empirical dynamic modeling
Scenario based forecasting (12/01/2020)
Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.
Ethics of Ecological Forecasting (12/3/2020)
Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future
Wrap up: Can we (and what should we) forecast in ecology? (12/8/2020)
Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.
Last modified August 5, 2020: Update _index.md (3ebc468)