Course Schedule and Links to Lessons

Here you will find links to everything you need for this course on ecological dynamics and forecasting. Material is broken into lessons and each lesson page contains links to whatever material is needed for that topic (videos, papers, discussion questions).

Course Introduction (9/1/2020)

Introduction to Time Series Data (9/3/2020)

Discussion about ecological data collection and how it relates to forecasting

Paleoecological Dynamics (9/8/2020)

Learn about past responses to global change at the end of the last Ice Age

Working with times and dates in R (9/10/2020)

Formatting times and dates in R to make working with time series data easier

Changes in Phenology (9/15/2020)

Discussing seasonal dynamics and how they change over time

Time Series Decomposition in R (9/17/2020)

Use R to examine dynamics occuring at different time-scales in ecological data

Community Dynamics (09/22/2020)

Discussion of current dynamics in biodiversity and implications for forecasting

Time Series Autocorrelation in R (09/24/2020)

Learn about autocorrelation in time series data and using R to examine it

Forecasting - Ask Me Anything w/Morgan (optional) (09/29/2020)

Time series modeling in R (10/1/2020)

Learn time-series modeling in R using ecological data

Introduction to Ecological Forecasting (10/06/2020)

A brief introduction to the concepts and approaches of ecological forecasting

Introduction to Forecasting in R (10/08/2020)

R tutorial introducing how to make forecasts from time-series models using the forecast package

Uncertainty in Forecasting (10/13/202)

Discussion of the sources and importance of uncertainty in ecological forecasting

Evaluating Forecasts in R (10/15/2020)

R tutorial on evaluating forecast accuracy and uncertainty using the forecast package

Forecasting using state space models (10/20/2020)

Learn about and discuss the use of state space models for ecological forecasting

State space models in R (10/22 & 10/27 2020)

Introductory tutorial on state space modeling in R

Forecasting using species distribution models (10/29/2020)

How forecasts are made from species distribution modelings and the challenges associated with these forecasts

Forecasting - Ask Me Anything w/Ethan (optional) (11/03/2020)

Species Distribution Models in R (11/05/2020)

An R tutorial on using fitting simple species models and making forecasts based on these models

Hurricane Forecasts (11/10/2020)

Learn how the field of hurricane forecasting approaches data and model challenges

Election forecasts (11/17/2020)

Discussion of modelling approaches and data challenges in election forecasting

Data-driven models for forecasting (11/19/2020)

A discussion of data-driven models, how they compare to process models, and how they can be used for forecasting, with a focu on Empirical Dynamic Modeling

Empirical Dynamic Modeling in R

R Tutorial on fitting and making forecasts using empirical dynamic modeling

Scenario based forecasting (12/01/2020)

Discussion of scenario based approaches to forecasting, which explore general classes of future outcomes to facilitate decision making.

Ethics of Ecological Forecasting (12/3/2020)

Discussion focused on ethical issues that can arise when we make predictions about the future

Wrap up: Can we (and what should we) forecast in ecology? (12/8/2020)

Synthetic discussion of how to use forecasting in ecology given the strengths, weakness, and approaches we’ve learned.

Last modified August 5, 2020: Update _index.md (3ebc468)