Why ecological forecasting?

  • Why do we need ecological forecasting?
  • What are two some of things we need to be able to make forecasts?

Terminology

  • What is the distinction between forecasting, prediction, projection & prognosis?
  • Of these types what is common in ecological forecasting and why?

State of ecological forecasting

  • Does ecological research tend ot focus more on forecasting/prediction or on understanding ecological processes?
  • When ecologists do forecast is it research or application focused?
  • What are the two general types of models that can be used for forecasting?
  • What are the different ways in which time and can incorporated into these models?
  • What are the different ways in which model parameters are determined?
  • What are the two main types of forecasts being developed and what properties to they have?

Uncertainty

  • What is the distinction between point estimates and uncertainty?
  • Do most ecological forecasts include uncertainty estimates?
  • Why does estimating uncertainty matter?